2020.03.25 05:53:12 (1242675882247852033) from Daniel J. Bernstein:
Wrote a Python script to recalculate graphs from new @StephenKissler distancing paper: https://cr.yp.to/2020/gigo-20200324.pdf https://cr.yp.to/2020/gigo-20200324.py Almost matches, but what's the paper's initial pulse? The paper's 37.5 safety claim fails for some pulses, never mind other flaws in the model.
2020.03.25 07:22:09 (1242698267801968641) from Daniel J. Bernstein:
The script also has many comments (target audience: Python programmers who enjoy math) to explain (1) SEIR mathematical models of epidemics and (2) specific issues with this paper's model. Script is easily tweaked to model handwashing+mask R0 reduction, future vaccination, etc.