2020.03.24 05:14:12 (1242303677987041282) from Daniel J. Bernstein:
The second sentence from @StephenKissler here is overstating what is actually shown in his paper. Most importantly, the paper analyzes only one intervention, social distancing, while assuming that all other interventions (e.g., widespread mask wearing) fail to reduce R0. https://twitter.com/StephenKissler/status/1242106525902090241
2020.03.23 16:10:46 (1242106521644867584) from "Stephen Kissler @skissler@fosstodon.org (@StephenKissler)", replying to "Stephen Kissler @skissler@fosstodon.org (@StephenKissler)" (1242106520147460098):
We expand upon a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 in the US to address the following questions: How long do social distancing measures need to stay in place? What if we try “pumping the brakes” with repeated rounds? How is this affected by seasonality? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112v1
2020.03.23 16:10:46 (1242106522903236609) from "Stephen Kissler @skissler@fosstodon.org (@StephenKissler)", replying to "Stephen Kissler @skissler@fosstodon.org (@StephenKissler)" (1242106521644867584):
In agreement with a recent report, strong, one-time social distancing may suppress critical cases to within capacity, but infection will resurge and overwhelm capacity once measures are lifted. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
2020.03.23 16:10:47 (1242106524165685250) from "Stephen Kissler @skissler@fosstodon.org (@StephenKissler)", replying to "Stephen Kissler @skissler@fosstodon.org (@StephenKissler)" (1242106522903236609):
We show that if social distancing is relaxed when transmissibility is heightened in the fall, an intense winter outbreak may occur in the still mostly-susceptible population. This peak may be higher than the ‘no intervention’ case and will overlap with flu season.
2020.03.23 16:10:47 (1242106525902090241) from "Stephen Kissler @skissler@fosstodon.org (@StephenKissler)", replying to "Stephen Kissler @skissler@fosstodon.org (@StephenKissler)" (1242106524165685250):
Intermittent social distancing can prevent critical care capacity from being exceeded but such measures may be required for 12-18 months. Depending on R0 and the amount of seasonality, social distancing must be ‘on’ for as little as 25% but up to 70% of the time.
